New data from Infometrics has seen a small lift in filled jobs within primary industries, up 0.2 percent since March.
Statistics for filled jobs rose 0.2 percent in March from February (seasonally adjusted). The month-on-month changes continue to flick between positive and negative, making the trend hard to depict.
Filled jobs across all three broad sectors rose in March, led by primary industries (+0.4 percent), followed by service industries (+0.2 percent), and goods-producing (+0.1 percent). This result is the first time all three broad sectors have risen from the previous month since January 2024 (all figures seasonally adjusted).
Strong filled jobs growth across primary industries over the past two months has driven the sector’s annual growth back into positive territory (+0.6 percent), the only broad sector up from a year ago. Over the same period, filled job numbers in goods-producing industries (-3.9 percent) and service industries (-1.0 percent) drove the total annual decline (-1.4 percent).
Annual jobs growth in the agriculture, forestry, and fishing industry turned positive in March, with job numbers rising 0.8 percent from a year ago, breaking the trend of declining job numbers compared to a year ago which had stretched for 11 consecutive months. The industry joins just five other industries out of the total of 19 that have higher filled job numbers than a year ago, mining (+4.2 percent), utilities (2.5 percent), health (+1.7 percent), arts & recreation (+1.7 percent), and financial services (+1.1 percent).
The annual decline in filled jobs continues to be spread across all regions apart from Otago (+0.1 percent). The South Island is faring better than the North Island, with job numbers falling 0.4 percent, compared to a 1.7 percent decline in the North. Better job numbers across primary industries are a likely driver of the difference.
Job ads in March rose 2.8 percent from February (based on Infometrics seasonal adjustment of MBIE data). Job ads are still yet to register two consecutive monthly rises, but they have largely held stable since mid-2024.
It may take a while longer before a clear trend in filled job numbers appears, particularly given economic uncertainty caused by recent international events. We expect the unemployment rate to peak at 5.4 percent in the June quarter, before heading down towards 5.0 percent over the second half of 2025.
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