Economic downturn has prompted business owners to adapt to a two-speed recovery, according to data from Q4 2025.
Retail NZ’s quarterly survey for Q4 2025 shows the country’s retailers are experiencing a two-speed recovery in the wake of the economic downturn, chief executive Carolyn Young said.
The latest Retail Radar report shows confidence is at a two-year high, with 76.7 percent of respondents saying they are ‘confident’ or ‘very confident’ their business will survive the next 12 months.
“This is a big jump on the 65.5 percent confidence rate in our previous survey, and a positive sign that retailers may finally be starting to realise those economic green shoots on the shop floor,” Retail NZ chief executive Carolyn Young says.
“Importantly, the proportion of retailers feeling ‘not confident’ their business will get through the next 12 months has almost halved since our Q3 2025 Retail Radar survey, to just 6.6 percent.”
Also, for the first time since Q1 2023 the number of retailers meeting their sales targets also edged above 50 percent. In Q3 2025, 61.7 percent of the survey respondents reported they did not meet their targets, that has now improved significantly to 48.3 percent.
“These are positive signs for the retail sector; however, retailers are still approaching 2026 with some caution,” Young says.
“The data shows a distinct gap between retailers who have stabilised and those who are still struggling. While 81 percent of those who were met their targets by the end of 2025 expect to continue to do so, only 28 percent of those missing the mark expect that to turn around in the first quarter of 2026.”
Young added that business owners have adjusted to the current market environment and are prepared to adapt to any sudden changes.
“We are also hearing of retailers downgrading their targets and taking on less stock, which indicates retailers are no longer expecting a quick bounce-back, and instead have a reluctant realism that spending could remain slow-going for a while yet.”
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