USA | North America's trade dispute has moved directly into food and beverage, leaving manufacturers and brand owners with some fairly immediate questions about where products are made, where ingredients are sourced and whether established supply routes will still work.
From 29 September, the United States will block a broad range of Canadian alcoholic beverages and selected dairy-related products from entering the country. Other Canadian products, including a number of cheeses, will remain eligible for import but face additional tariffs of 50 percent.
The restrictions cover much of the Canadian beer, wine and spirits trade, along with products including whey protein, molasses and non-alcoholic beer. The alcohol and dairy bans take effect on 29 September, while changes to the products caught by the 50 percent tariffs begin on 15 September.
Canada had already imposed its own counter-tariffs from 8 September, covering C$27.6 billion of US imports. Rates of 15, 25 and 50 percent apply across goods including dairy, agricultural equipment, steel, appliances and electronics.
For food and beverage companies, the problem is becoming more specific than the headline numbers suggest.
Whey is a good example. Canada exported C$482.1 million of protein ingredients in 2025, with the United States accounting for 72.9 percent of those exports. Protein ingredients are now being used across a much wider mix of products, from dairy and snacks through to ready-to-drink beverages. Blocking Canadian whey from the US market puts an established ingredient route under pressure at a time when demand for protein remains strong.
It also raises the prospect of US manufacturers looking elsewhere for supply. New Zealand dairy ingredient companies will be watching that, although an import ban does not automatically translate into new business. Price, available capacity, customer specifications and existing supply contracts will determine how much Canadian volume can realistically be replaced.
The response from beverage companies is already showing how quickly manufacturing decisions can become part of the equation. Reuters reported that Sapporo, which owns Canada's Sleeman Breweries, was considering moving a limited amount of non-alcoholic drinks production from Canada to the United States because of the tariff risk. The company said no final decision had been made.
Alcohol producers face a different problem. US wholesalers have warned that the ban could remove products from retail shelves and hospitality menus as businesses move towards the important end-of-year trading period. Some Canadian spirits may avoid the restriction depending on how they are shipped and bottled, giving companies with production or packaging on both sides of the border more options than smaller exporters.
There is a broader procurement issue here for FMCG businesses well beyond Canada and the United States. A product can still have demand and a retailer willing to range it, yet become commercially difficult because its country of manufacture or an ingredient in its supply chain suddenly attracts a tariff or an outright restriction.
For New Zealand dairy ingredient exporters, the dispute is worth watching for any shift in US sourcing. Restrictions on Canadian whey and other dairy ingredients could push some American buyers to look elsewhere, although price, specifications, existing contracts and available capacity will determine whether that creates any meaningful opportunity.
There is another side to it. Canadian product that can no longer move easily into the United States may be redirected into other export markets, potentially increasing competition for suppliers already selling into Asia and elsewhere. For New Zealand companies, the impact is therefore likely to be concentrated in particular products and markets rather than felt across the wider food and beverage sector.
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