Employment during June indicated a glimmer of hope, up 0.1 percent, while job advertisements were down by nearly three percent.
Filled job numbers rose just 0.1 percent in June from May (seasonally adjusted). The previous month's narrow 0.1 percent rise was revised down to a 0.1 percent decline. June’s narrow rise could also be revised to flat or negative growth in future releases.
The number of primary industries filled jobs saw its largest month-on-month rise since November 2023, increasing 0.9 percent in June from May (seasonally adjusted) to be up 1.2 percent from a year ago. Filled jobs in goods-producing industries extended their declines to 21 consecutive months and remain down 4.1 percent from a year ago. Service industries filled jobs rose for the first time since January, up 0.2 percent from May (seasonally adjusted).
Filled jobs had been down from a year ago in the South Island for 11 consecutive months before June, but they are now up 0.2 percent from a year ago. This lift is likely to be due to the rise in primary industries filled jobs, with the West Coast (+1.2 percent pa) and Southland (+1.3 percent pa) seeing the return of strong annual growth. Filled jobs in the North Island remained lower than a year ago, down 1.5 percent.
Job ads in June fell 3.1 percent from May (based on Infometrics' seasonal adjustment of MBIE data). The job ads index continues to bounce around at low levels, without any material directional trend emerging.
Matthew Allman from Infometrics said emerging trends in filled jobs seem to match broader trends in the economic recovery, with better export earnings boosting the primary sector, but with flow-on effects yet to hit other areas of the economy, such as manufacturing and services industries.
He said given that May’s +0.4 percent monthly rise in primary industries filled jobs was heavily revised to a -0.1 percent decline, the +0.9 percent rise in June might turn out to be more modest in coming releases.
Weakness is still clear across the main centres, with Auckland (-1.9 percent pa) and Wellington (-2.3 percent pa) filled jobs still down significantly from a year ago. Canterbury (+0.1 percent pa) has remained resilient relative to Auckland and Wellington, with its largest annual decline just -0.7 percent pa back in October last year.
“In our July forecasts, we shifted our expectation of the peak in the unemployment rate out a quarter, to 5.3 percent in the September 2025 quarter,” said Allman.
This shift aligns with trends in monthly employment indicators, which are yet to show upward momentum, and job ads, which remain at low levels.
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