Foodservice spend forecast to grow three percent across the U.S. and Europe, as evolving consumer behaviours reshape formats.
Global foodservice is set for continued expansion, with total spend across the U.S. and Europe forecast to grow by three percent in 2026 according to the latest insights from Circana. Reinforcing its role as a key growth engine for manufacturers, retailers and operators, the foodservice market is experiencing structural shifts and evolving consumer behaviours which are reshaping how and where consumers eat.
At the international trade show, Alimentaria, Circana’s Edurne Uranga, VP Foodservice Europe and David Portalatin, VP & Chief Advisor, Consumer Goods & Foodservice Insights, addressed the long‑standing industry belief that developments in the US market often transcend at a later point in Europe.
“…The reality is more nuanced. The two markets share common dynamics, particularly the blurring of channels as new touchpoints emerge to capture immediate consumption occasions, but diverge in important structural ways,” said Uranga.
Uranga highlighted that, in the U.S., convenience stores are at the forefront of the shift in channels, whereas in Europe, supermarkets and hypermarkets are accelerating the development of ready-to-eat solutions.
Consumption patterns are moving in similar directions, albeit at different paces: on-premise dining is recovering in the U.S, to the detriment of drive-thru and takeaway for in-home dining, while out-of-home consumption continues to expand in Europe, and is now accounting for 45 percent of total foodservice spend Vs 75 percent in the US.
Chain restaurants play very different roles, dominating the US market (78 percent) while remaining underpenetrated in Europe (45 percent). Despite growing at a faster rate than in the U.S., chain penetration in Europe is still significantly lower, highlighting substantial headroom for expansion and a clear opportunity for U.S. chains to scale into European markets.
One trend is consistent across both regions: consumer expectations have shifted away from price, function and loyalty, with growth now increasingly tied to an experience: the desire for more variety, more nutritionally attractive options, and the excitement of discovering new places and new menus.
Taking the structural differences in ownership identified above into account, Circana identified the major global trends that are currently shaping, and will continue to shape, foodservice in Europe in 2026 and beyond.
European Foodservice consumption (consistent across all countries) is driven by reflecting more flexible consumption habits and on-the-go lifestyles.
Common across both regions, however, is a structural shift in consumption behaviour. Foodservice demand is progressively delocalising from traditional, core occasions such as lunch and dinner, and expanding into in‑between moments - mid‑morning, brunch and mid‑afternoon - which are now among the fastest‑growing dayparts.
“This acceleration is being fuelled by new, healthier lifestyles, more daytime‑oriented routines, flexible working patterns and evolving consumer attitudes towards grazing, personal wellbeing and energy management throughout the day. As a result, consumption is no longer anchored to formal meals, but increasingly distributed across multiple, smaller occasions,” said Uranga.
“Together, these dynamics are giving rise to a new ocean of consumption occasions, creating substantial and incremental growth opportunities for selected beverage and snacking categories, particularly those that can credibly tap into functionality, balance, indulgence without guilt, and convenience.”
Health and purpose-driven consumption is reshaping menus and occasions. 40 percent of Europeans follow a specific diet, rising to 58 percent among Gen Z and younger Millennials. High-protein and low-calorie diets dominate, while 24 percent of consumers report switching venues due to a lack of suitable options. Functional food and beverages supporting energy, immunity, and weight management, are among the fastest-growing segments.
“As foodservice continues to evolve, restaurants and brands must rethink how they deliver value in a much broader sense so that every Euro spent feels worth it for consumers,” said Uranga.
“At the same time, the sector should look at how revamping menus will help tap into new consumption patterns in a way that feels locally relevant for the consumption occasion and channel. Those who can strike that balance will be best positioned to win in the next phase of foodservice growth.”
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