Nicola Waldren, General Manager of the Restaurant Association of New Zealand, said that as the year progresses, businesses can learn from the past six months and what to expect in the months to come.
As we move into the second half of the year, there is plenty to reflect on, not just how the first six months have unfolded, but what they might tell us as we plan for the months ahead.
If you'd asked many of us at the start of the year what we were hoping for, I think a common theme would have been signs that the corner was beginning to turn, less reacting to the unexpected, and more certainty.
Six months into the year
The sales data we've been tracking points to growth returning in a number of areas, with some regions experiencing particularly strong momentum. Those figures are broadly consistent with what we hear from businesses in those regions. Some businesses are feeling more optimistic than they were a year ago. Some are seeing customers return more regularly and are beginning to think about growth again.
But alongside them are businesses that continue to face extremely challenging conditions. In some areas, sales are flat and in others they remain below where they were a year ago, despite that being a period of significantly subdued trading. And for many, stronger turnover has not necessarily translated into stronger margins. The number of closures across our sector serves as a sobering reminder of that.
Not everyone is struggling, but not everyone is thriving either. The pattern of the first half of the year, an uneven recovery, periods of stronger momentum, and conditions that continue to shift, is really the story of 2026 so far.
What can we build on in the remaining months?
Uncertainty remains. Partly because the world around us remains unsettled. Global pressures have shifted, a peace agreement is now in place in the Middle East, but we don't yet know how quickly some of those cost pressures will ease, or whether new ones will emerge. At home, we are also quickly heading towards the election, with the major parties beginning to release more information on their policy platforms. We’re engaging closely in this and making sure the voice of our industry is part of that conversation. There are settings we believe can be better for hospitality, and the lead-up to an election is an important opportunity to make that case.
Tourism continues to recover and, unlike many other factors, it often provides some advance warning. Forward bookings, airline capacity and major events provide useful indicators that allow businesses to prepare rather than simply react, always something to keep a close eye on, and particularly as we move into the second half of the year.
Economic forecasts are everywhere, so finding one or two sources you trust can help cut through some of the noise as you plan for the months ahead.
And often the best indicators remain the ones closest to home. As an industry, we’ve become pretty expert at reading changing conditions. Bookings, customer frequency, average spend, function enquiries and conversations with neighbouring businesses often provide signals well before the official numbers catch up. If those signals start to strengthen, don't just note them. Think about how to make the most of them. Recovery rarely arrives all at once, and being ready when opportunities present can make all the difference. That's not to ignore the wider picture. But when things feel unpredictable, there is value in leaning into what you do know.
Stability is progress
Growth remains the goal, of course. But for many businesses, the opportunity in the second half of the year may simply be a period of greater stability, the ability to make decisions without constantly second-guessing whether the ground is about to shift beneath you.
The first half of the year reminded us that recovery rarely arrives evenly. It also reminded us that conditions can improve and momentum can return. The pattern so far has been uneven, but it has been moving. Heading into the second half, a little more confidence, a little less volatility, and a clearer picture of what you're watching for feels like a good start.
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