Infometrics has released new data outlining the current monthly job and employment landscape in New Zealand.
Filled job numbers rose just 0.1 percent in May from April (seasonally adjusted). Last month's narrow 0.1 percent decline was revised down to a 0.3 percent decline. May’s narrow rise could be revised to flat or negative growth in future releases.
Primary industries filled jobs rose 0.4 percent in May from April (seasonally adjusted) and were higher than a year ago for the first time since October 2024 (+1.0 percent pa). Declines in filled jobs in goods-producing industries continued, falling 0.2 percent from April, down 4.0 percent pa from a year ago. Service industries are lacking any real trend, with month-to-month changes bouncing between positive and negative over the past nine months, resulting in a largely immaterial 0.1 percent decline from September 2024 (seasonally adjusted).
Across the regions, trends have been relatively consistent over the past six months. The decline in the South Island (-0.4 percent pa) remains more muted than in the North Island (-1.7 percent pa), and the annual decline is slowed across both islands, to their lowest since November 2024. Auckland (-1.9 percent pa) and Wellington (-2.2 percent pa) remain above the national average decline (-1.4 percent pa), and Southland (+0.4 percent pa) is the only region in positive territory.
Job ads in May rose 3.5 percent from April (based on Infometrics seasonal adjustment of MBIE data). The job ads index is now at its highest in a year but remains relatively low (down 37 percent from two years ago), indicating that a material turnaround won’t come quickly.
Filled job numbers have been lower than a year ago for twelve consecutive months, with the revised April decline reaching –1.9 percent pa, the largest decline in this downturn. The annual decline in May was a smaller -1.4 percent pa decline but was largely a function of a large 0.4 percent monthly decline in May 2024.
Filled jobs in the agriculture, forestry, and fishing industry were higher than a year ago (+1.3 percent pa) for the first time since March 2024, likely reflecting higher commodity prices and export volumes we have seen across dairy, meat and horticulture over the past year. Filled jobs across most industries remain lower than a year ago, with some exceptions, largely due to industry-specific drivers, including mining (+3.9 percent pa), utilities (+1.0 percent pa), education (+1.3 percent pa), and health care (+2.2 percent pa).
Given the sharp decline in April, it looks like there is scope for the unemployment rate to pick up in the June 2025 quarterly data, although the monthly employment indicators (MEIs) and the household labour force survey (HLFS) do not always move in tandem, with the MEIs based off administrative data and the HLFS based off survey data. The unemployment rate remained flat at 5.1 percent in the March 2025 quarter, but most analysts have been anticipating a peak of around 5.3-5.4 percent in the June quarter before conditions slowly improve over the remainder of 2025.
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