Global on-trade has been highlighted as being the key to the revival of beverage alcohol across key markets, according to IWSR research.
The global on-trade is emerging from years of disruption, with positive signs of growth from a number of key markets, and now a new on-trade value product from IWSR offers a fresh window on this often opaque channel, with unrivalled depth and granularity.
The slowdown in on-trade consumption over the past few years, the result of pandemic disruption, price increases, and changes in consumer behaviour, has hampered total beverage alcohol (TBA) volumes as a whole.
By the same token, however, the channel’s recovery is key to the revival of TBA consumption across key markets. According to IWSR Bevtrac consumer research conducted in September 2024, on-trade consumption incidence is on the up.
For example, while 58 percent of people surveyed in China in September 2023 said their last beverage alcohol consumption occasion occurred in the on-trade, this number had increased to 64 percent in September 2024.
A similar dynamic is evident in a number of key markets, including the US (increasing from 31 percent to 34 percent); the UK (35 percent to 40 percent); Mexico (34 percent to 40 percent); Italy (43 percent to 48 percent); Germany (27 percent to 33 percent); and Canada (19 percent to 24 percent).
“After years of disruption, the on-trade channel is showing signs of revival in key countries, driving a long-awaited note of optimism for the global beverage alcohol market,” said Richard Halstead, COO of Consulting and Consumer Insights.
“The propensity to go out for Millennials in the US in particular over-indexes; as their circumstances start to improve, premium beverage categories such as whiskies and sparkling wine appear to be the biggest beneficiaries. Moderation is still evident in both the off- and the on-trade. However, our research shows that the going-out occasion prompts higher spend and more experimentation.”
However, moulding a strategy to exploit growth opportunities in the on-trade remains highly challenging: reliable data and estimates of on-trade value by market are hard to find, and there is a general lack of visibility into the size of the prize in terms of the channel’s sell-out value – in other words, the amount of money actually spent by consumers in the world’s bars and restaurants.
“Coverage of beverage alcohol in the global on-trade is notoriously patchy,” explained Xian Wang, Chief Product Officer.
“Local markets may have some sources, such as wholesalers or distributors, but stitching these together is painful, thanks to the existence of different approaches and methodologies.”
He added that as a result, comparing and contrasting markets and categories in a standardised, consistent way is difficult. Decisions are therefore often made based on instinct, and on a few conversations or analogies from local markets, and are not grounded in consistent and comprehensive data.
On-trade opportunities: the solution
IWSR’s new on-trade value data product aims to resolve these difficulties. Complementing the company’s existing Global Database On-trade Volume data, it offers additional depth and channel granularity, displaying on-trade value sell-out or consumer expenditure.
Launching in May 2025 alongside IWSR’s annual Global Database release, the new product covers the world’s top 20 markets, China, the US, the UK, Brazil, Japan, Germany, India, France, Mexico, Italy, Canada, Australia, Spain, South Africa and Taiwan; plus five additional destinations: Poland, South Korea, Thailand, the Netherlands and Colombia.
IWSR are collecting price multipliers via menu capture of an indicative number of outlets across venue types (bars/restaurants), price points (low, mid or high) and regional distribution. Further adjustments take account of price differences between city, urban and rural locations.
These price multipliers are used with volume data to gain an insight into the on-trade price to consumer value.
“IWSR’s new on-trade value product provides transparency into the channel among the top 20 global markets, in an area of the industry where market sizing is notoriously opaque. It provides brand owners with insights into which categories in which markets are taking off, enabling them to assemble the right product assortment to take advantage of trends at different types of venue,” said Wang.
“It also helps them to decide how best to support operators in the on-trade marketplace, using data to advise them to focus on a particular price band or category – and therefore to stock their brand line as a result.”
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