USA | The persistent cost increases and enduring demand from customers will shape the restaurant industry in 2026, according to new data.
The restaurant industry is poised for a year of measured growth, though a cooling labour market, persistent cost pressures, and cautious household spending will continue to challenge operator margins. According to the National Restaurant Association's 2026 State of the Restaurant Industry report, total restaurant and foodservice sales are projected to reach USD 1.55 trillion, and restaurant operators are forecast to add more than 100,000 jobs.
This projected growth reflects an industry navigating a mixed economic landscape: operators are facing uneven traffic and elevated operating expenses, while consumers, particularly those in lower- and middle-income households, are increasingly stretched. Even so, restaurants remain deeply woven into American culture, with the majority of adults continuing to prioritise dining out, takeout, and delivery, even when budgets tighten.
"Restaurants remain an economic powerhouse that, even when faced with soft consumer spending and sustained margin pressures, drives job growth and fosters entrepreneurship," said Michelle Korsmo, President & CEO of the National Restaurant Association.
"The industry's resilience is driven by its people, its adaptability, and its ability to evolve alongside consumers, making continued investment in workforce, innovation, and smart policy solutions essential to long-term growth."
Operators remain cautiously optimistic, even as rising costs and softer traffic persist. Many operators expect sales to hold steady or improve this year, and the Association forecasts modest real sales growth of 1.3 percent.
Consumers have strong pent-up demand for restaurant experiences. More than seven in 10 consumers say they would use restaurants more frequently if they had more disposable income. This desire is especially strong among Gen Z and millennials, who continue to lead the industry's off-premises growth.
Restaurant and foodservice employment is projected to reach 15.8 million jobs in 2026. Nearly three-quarters of operators plan to hire but expect difficulties finding experienced managers and chefs. Longer-term labour force challenges, particularly the shrinking 16-to 24-year-old population, underscore the need for sustained workforce development and immigration reform.
More than nine in 10 operators cite food, labour, insurance, energy, and swipe fees as significant challenges. Last year, 42 percent of operators reported their restaurant was not profitable, highlighting the need for operational innovation, workforce investment, and smart policy solutions.
In the current economic environment, restaurant operators are investing in training and tools to support hospitality with technology-driven efficiency. Advances in ordering, AI, and data analytics are helping operators streamline operations, manage costs, and enhance the customer experience.
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