Cabinet is due to make a decision on Monday May 11 on whether or not New Zealand steps down to Alert Level 2, but infectious disease researcher Dr Siouxsie Wiles thinks that it will be too soon.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has already given an indication of what will be allowed under Alert Level 2. With the announcement on when we will move to that level on Monday, along with the government’s two day warning system, the earliest we could move would be next Wednesday.
Wiles said it would still be a little too soon to know by Monday whether the drop from the previous Level 4 lockdown to Level 3 had resulted in a spike of cases.
By the afternoon of Thursday May 7, the Ministry of Health had reported just three new cases of COVID-19 this week, all linked to previous known cases.
Wiles explained that those low numbers were a reflection of the lockdown restrictions in Level 4. Given the amount of time it could take for an infected person to show symptoms, she was concerned that by Monday there would not be a full enough picture of Level 3.
"I would be hoping we stay for at least another week just to be sure we know what's happened in level 3,” said Wiles.
Other experts have expressed their concern that the change in restrictions between Level 3 and those indicated for Level 2 feel like quite a jump.
On the other hand, Professor Mick Roberts, who studies the epidemiology of infectious diseases at Massey University, is optimistic the country will be ready to step down to Level 2 next Wednesday.
"We don't appear to have any community transmission now, and there's been nothing for a while," said Roberts.
