USA | Amid the government shutdown, research has suggested it could hit restaurants harder than it did during the last shutdown in 2018.
As the U.S. government shutdown ends, OysterLink warns that the current economic climate could make 2025's shutdown more damaging to the industry than the one in 2018.
In 2018, the restaurant sector was enjoying robust growth. Restaurants had just added 41,000 jobs in December, giving the industry a financial cushion to weather temporary disruptions.
By contrast, 2025 is starting from a position of weakness. Restaurant staffing has been essentially flat during the first eight months of the year, with fewer than 13,000 jobs added year-to-date, leaving operators with little room to absorb sudden drops in customer spending.
According to preliminary Bureau of Labour Statistics data, eating and drinking places added 11,000 jobs in August 2025, following a two-month period of essentially flat payrolls. Despite the slowdown, the overall demand for labour remained strong, with the hospitality sector hiring more than 800,000 workers over the last four months.
However, this growth has been offset by a higher-than-average number of employees leaving their jobs. Between May and July, approximately 715,000 hospitality workers quit, 150,000 more than the average over the prior 12 months. As a result, the restaurant workforce remains fragile.
The limited-service restaurant segment, including coffee shops, quick-service, and fast casual outlets, has outpaced pre-pandemic employment levels, with snack and beverage bars 22 percent above February 2020 figures and quick-service restaurants 2.3 percent above. Full-service restaurants, however, remain 222,000 jobs (or four percent) below pre-pandemic staffing.
At the state level, employment recovery has been uneven. Mountain states such as Idaho (+17 percent), Utah (+15 percent), and Nevada (+13 percent) have exceeded pre-pandemic staffing, while Massachusetts, West Virginia, and Maryland remain four percent to five percent below their pre-pandemic levels.
"Unlike 2018, the industry had no cushion to absorb shocks. The slowdown in spending quickly pushed restaurants to make difficult operational decisions," said Milos Eric, co-founder and general manager at OysterLink.
Despite these setbacks, the restaurant sector remains above pre-pandemic employment levels, proof of its resilience. But the 2025 shutdown has shown just how fragile that recovery still is.
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